Nigeria’s 213% Surge in Terrorist Surrenders Is Encouraging But the Nine Bodies on a Niger Road Tell Another Story

Nigeria’s military says terrorist surrenders in the North-East jumped 213 per cent in one week, a development it attributes to sustained pressure from Operation Hadin Kai. The military says intensified ground operations, attacks on terrorist positions and disruption of logistics are weakening the groups’ ability to operate and retain fighters. Two high-profile members reportedly surrendered…

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Trump Says the U.S. Has “Total Control” of Hormuz. The Shipping Data Tells a More Complicated Story.

The latest US-Iran confrontation over the Strait of Hormuz is becoming a battle not only over a strategic waterway, but over who gets to define what “control” actually means. President Donald Trump says the United States has “total control” of the Strait, declaring that the American naval presence is a “wall of steel” and suggesting…

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Kebbi Clash: 10 Police Officers Killed, But Can Security Forces Keep Winning Battles and Losing the War?

Ten police officers and two civilians have been killed in a major gun battle with suspected bandits in Sakaba Local Government Area of Kebbi State, highlighting just how dangerous the north-western security crisis remains even as authorities report increasing successes against armed groups. The confrontation happened around 9:25 a.m. Monday along the Rafin Makuku axis,…

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Bab el-Mandeb Attack Shows How Quickly a Shipping Crisis Can Become a Global Cost Problem

Reports of a missile attack on a Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, reportedly killing three crew members, two Pakistanis and one Indonesian, are the latest warning that the Red Sea shipping crisis is becoming harder for commercial operators to ignore. The details of the reported incident are still developing, and there has…

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Strait of Hormuz Talks Show How Weak Rules Can Become a Global Economic Problem

The latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz are exposing a bigger problem than whether commercial ships can return to the waterway: international rules are struggling to keep pace with a geopolitical crisis. Iran and Oman are reportedly close to an arrangement that would create separate routes for ships travelling through the strait, with discussions…

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Sokoto Attack Shows Nigeria’s Security Challenge Is Bigger Than More Soldiers

The latest attack in Sokoto has exposed the difficult reality facing Nigeria’s security strategy: even as the government increases military pay and tightens its response to criminal activity in schools, communities are still being left vulnerable to heavily armed attacks. At least 21 people are feared dead and 37 others were abducted after gunmen attacked…

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Trump Has Chosen Diplomacy Over Airstrikes. Now Comes the Hard Part.

Just days after the United States appeared to be on the brink of another military confrontation with Iran, President Donald Trump has announced that direct negotiations between Washington and Tehran will begin, following his decision to shelve planned military strikes. Trump said the talks are expected to start Monday and expressed optimism that diplomacy could…

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Trump’s Promise of More US Strikes on Iran Signals a Longer Conflict And Greater Risks for Global Markets

U.S. President Donald Trump has confirmed that American military strikes inside Iran will continue, a declaration that suggests the conflict is entering a new phase with no immediate end in sight. While the latest announcement focuses on military action, its biggest implications may be economic and geopolitical rather than tactical. Speaking after the latest escalation,…

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