The latest tensions in the Middle East are revealing a problem that could become more important than the fighting itself: the countries involved increasingly disagree on what an acceptable end to the conflict actually looks like.
US President Donald Trump has backed a 15-point framework for Gaza that would involve Hamas disarming, followed by a phased Israeli withdrawal and the creation of an interim Palestinian administration. Hamas has indicated acceptance under certain conditions, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has rejected the proposal, insisting that Israel will not withdraw until Hamas is genuinely disarmed.
That public disagreement matters because Washington and Tel Aviv have been closely aligned throughout the wider regional conflict. If they cannot agree on how Gaza should move towards an end to the war, negotiations could become significantly harder.
At the same time, Iran is using another strategic pressure point: the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have said the waterway will not fully reopen until Tehran’s conditions are met. Those demands reportedly include an end to the US naval blockade, sanctions relief and compensation for war damage. Iran has also discussed restrictions and fees for ships using the route.
This means the Middle East is facing two separate but connected diplomatic problems. In Gaza, the disagreement is over security and political control. Around Hormuz, it is about military pressure, economic concessions and control of a crucial global shipping route.
For the rest of the world, the danger is that neither dispute has an easy compromise. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because disruption there affects global energy markets and shipping costs. Even the prospect of a prolonged closure can create uncertainty for oil-importing countries and businesses that depend on predictable transport costs.
The Trump-Netanyahu disagreement also raises questions about how much influence Washington can actually exert over its closest regional ally. If Netanyahu refuses to accept a US-backed framework, Trump faces a difficult choice: increase pressure on Israel, modify the proposal or accept that the path forward will be slower and more complicated.
For now, the biggest expectation should be more negotiations rather than an immediate breakthrough. The region may be approaching a point where military strength alone cannot produce the outcome each side wants. The difficult part will be finding a political deal that Iran, Israel, the US and the various actors in Gaza can all live with.
