The latest developments around the Strait of Hormuz are exposing a bigger problem than whether commercial ships can return to the waterway: international rules are struggling to keep pace with a geopolitical crisis.
Iran and Oman are reportedly close to an arrangement that would create separate routes for ships travelling through the strait, with discussions also involving fees for services such as security and navigation. But the proposal remains disputed. Shipping industry sources say the plan could conflict with international maritime rules, while Washington opposes any system that requires vessels to pay Iran-linked authorities.
Most importantly, Iran has warned that agreeing on shipping routes would not automatically guarantee the safety of vessels. That means a commercial agreement could exist on paper while uncertainty remains at sea. And that is where the bigger concern lies.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Around 20% of global petroleum flows through it, meaning prolonged disruption can quickly affect fuel prices, shipping costs and inflation far beyond the Middle East.
The dispute over fees also highlights how difficult it can be to enforce international maritime principles during a conflict. The EU has already accused Iranian authorities of obstructing freedom of navigation and implementing a toll system, while the shipping industry is warning that companies could face legal and insurance problems if they pay disputed fees.
At the same time, the wider security picture remains tense. Saudi Arabia is preparing for possible attacks against ports and airports, while Washington is dealing with questions over whether months of fighting have depleted some of its most important missile stocks. Trump has rejected reports of serious shortages and ordered a hunt for officials accused of leaking information about American weapons supplies.
This creates a dangerous cycle: the longer the conflict continues, the more pressure there is on countries to create their own rules for survival. That is why the Hormuz negotiations matter beyond shipping.
International law is supposed to provide predictable rules for global trade. But when major powers disagree over who controls a strategic waterway, what ships can be charged and who guarantees their safety, businesses are left carrying the risk.
The lesson for the global economy is simple: rules are only as strong as the ability to enforce them. And until there is a clear, internationally accepted framework for Hormuz, oil markets and shipping companies will continue pricing uncertainty into everything.
