The conflict between the United States and Iran has entered another dangerous phase, with fresh US military strikes and mounting threats to global shipping pushing crude oil prices closer to the $100-per-barrel mark and raising concerns over the global economy.
US forces carried out a 12th consecutive night of airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, saying the operations are aimed at degrading Tehran’s ability to threaten commercial shipping and regional security. The latest strikes come as tensions continue to escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes, where Iran has warned against unauthorised tanker movements.
The crisis has also expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-backed Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, creating fears of a second major shipping chokepoint and forcing some vessels to reroute. Analysts warn that disruptions across both waterways could significantly tighten global energy supplies if the conflict continues.
The growing security risks have rattled energy markets. Brent crude briefly traded above $95 per barrel, its highest level in six weeks, with analysts warning that prices could climb beyond $100, and potentially reach $120, if attacks on oil infrastructure or shipping intensify. War-risk insurance premiums for vessels operating in the region have also surged, adding further costs to global trade.
A notable development is that the market’s concerns are no longer driven solely by oil production. Shipping disruptions have become just as significant. Gulf producers, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are accelerating investments in alternative pipeline routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, although experts caution these projects will take years to ease dependence on the waterway.
The International Energy Agency has warned that despite emergency stock releases and increased exports from other producers, the global oil market remains vulnerable. With military operations continuing and no diplomatic breakthrough in sight, governments and businesses worldwide are closely monitoring developments that could have far-reaching consequences for fuel prices, inflation and global supply chains.
