The African Development Bank (AfDB) has warned that a potential “Super El Niño” weather event could inflict between $10 billion and $20 billion in economic losses across Africa, with Nigeria listed among the countries at risk of severe impacts.
Speaking to Reuters, AfDB Director for Climate Change and Green Growth, Anthony Nyong, said the anticipated weather pattern could become one of the strongest on record if warming trends in the Pacific Ocean continue. A Super El Niño is typically associated with prolonged droughts, destructive floods and severe storms, threatening agriculture, food production, infrastructure and livelihoods across the continent.
According to the bank, heavily affected African countries could see their GDP shrink by an average of 1% to 2%, while food insecurity, water shortages and damage to public infrastructure could place additional strain on already stretched government finances. Nyong also warned that the event could trigger large-scale migration as communities move in search of food, water and safer living conditions.
The AfDB identified countries including Nigeria, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo as particularly vulnerable. It also warned that staple food prices, including maize, could double in some regions, worsening existing humanitarian challenges.
To prepare for the looming threat, the bank plans to hold a high-level review in September to assess the impact on its projects and explore additional climate financing. Nyong estimated Africa may now require up to $100 billion in climate adaptation funding over the next year to strengthen resilience against the expected shocks.
The warning comes as meteorologists continue to monitor the development of the 2026/27 El Niño event, with African climate agencies urging governments to strengthen early warning systems and disaster preparedness before conditions worsen.
