Nigeria is making two economic moves that look unrelated on the surface but point towards the same bigger objective: getting more value out of what the country already has.
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is consulting industry stakeholders on a proposed domestic crude oil and gas swap arrangement designed to make it easier and cheaper for local refineries to access crude. At the same time, Nigeria’s trade relationship with India has expanded sharply, with bilateral trade reaching about $9 billion in the 2025–26 financial year, up from $7.13 billion previously.
The crude swap proposal could be particularly important for Nigeria’s refining ambitions. The problem isn’t simply that Nigeria produces crude and has refineries. Where that crude is located and where it needs to go can make a huge difference to the final cost.
Under the proposed arrangement, a producer with crude near an export terminal could effectively fulfil the domestic supply obligation of another producer whose crude is closer to a Nigerian refinery. Instead of moving barrels unnecessarily across the country, the companies would effectively swap delivery responsibilities and settle the difference financially. That could remove some of the unnecessary logistics costs that currently make domestic refining more expensive.
And there is evidence that crude supply to local refiners is already improving. NUPRC says 53.7 million barrels were supplied to domestic refiners between April and June, representing 97.4% performance against the domestic crude supply obligation for the quarter.
But the swap proposal is still at the consultation stage. Its success will depend on how the pricing, crude quality, accountability and settlement mechanisms are designed.
The India relationship tells another part of the story. Nigeria and India aren’t simply trading more oil. Their relationship is expanding into areas including energy, healthcare, agriculture, technology, security and investment. About 200 Indian companies are reportedly operating in Nigeria and employing around 100,000 people, making Indian businesses one of the country’s biggest sources of private-sector employment.
That matters because Nigeria needs more trade relationships that produce investment, jobs and technology, rather than simply exporting raw commodities. There is also an opportunity here for Nigerian businesses.
If trade with India continues expanding, Nigerian companies could potentially gain access to a market of more than a billion consumers, while Indian companies gain a larger foothold in West Africa through Nigeria. So these two developments point in the same direction.
Nigeria wants to keep more of the value generated by its oil at home while simultaneously building stronger economic relationships abroad. The real test, however, is implementation.
A crude swap that remains on paper won’t lower refinery costs. And $9 billion in trade means little to ordinary Nigerians if most of the benefits don’t translate into investment, jobs, cheaper products and stronger local businesses. The opportunity is there. Now Nigeria has to turn the numbers into something people can actually feel.
