Global oil markets are once again being pushed higher by the standoff between the United States and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, with Brent crude climbing sharply as hopes of a quick reopening of the strategic waterway fade. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its 2026 Brent price forecast to about $87 per barrel, while prices briefly moved as high as $90 earlier this week.
But the important question is not simply whether oil can reach $87. It is how long it can stay there.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. Continued restrictions on shipping have already disrupted oil flows and forced producers in the region to shut in significant volumes. The EIA previously estimated that production shut-ins linked to the disruption had reached millions of barrels per day, while warning that restoring normal production and trade patterns could take months even after shipping resumes.
That makes the latest price movement more than a temporary geopolitical reaction. If tensions ease and shipping through Hormuz returns to something approaching normal, some of the geopolitical premium could quickly disappear. Oil could fall just as rapidly as it rose.
But if the confrontation drags on, $87 could start looking less like a ceiling and more like a new floor. That would have consequences far beyond petrol stations. Higher crude prices feed into transportation, aviation, manufacturing, electricity generation and food distribution because businesses ultimately pay more to move goods and operate equipment.
For oil-producing countries such as Nigeria, the situation presents an obvious opportunity: higher crude prices can increase government oil revenue and foreign-exchange earnings. But that benefit is not automatic. Nigeria also needs to translate higher export earnings into stronger fiscal conditions rather than allowing the additional revenue to disappear into existing spending pressures.
There is another problem. Higher oil prices can become self-defeating if they begin to weaken global economic growth. Expensive energy raises costs for businesses and consumers, potentially keeping inflation elevated and forcing central banks to maintain restrictive interest rates for longer.
So the real market question now isn’t “Will oil hit $87?” It already has. The question is whether Washington and Tehran can prevent a temporary supply shock from becoming a prolonged global energy problem.
