Nigeria’s latest private-sector numbers offer one of the clearest signs yet that businesses are beginning to regain confidence. Business activity reportedly reached a five-month high, while the Nigerian Exchange Group’s market value has climbed to about ₦160 trillion.
But the more interesting question is whether this improvement is the beginning of a broader economic recovery or simply a stronger performance from companies that are already positioned to benefit.
The private-sector improvement matters because businesses are usually among the first to feel the effects of economic instability. When companies become more confident about demand, investment and future conditions, they are more likely to expand operations, hire workers and increase production. That is the opportunity Nigeria now needs to protect.
The NGX’s rising valuation is another encouraging signal. Market capitalization has increased dramatically from previous levels, although part of the increase can reflect new listings and corporate actions rather than share-price gains alone. For example, NGX market capitalization rose even during a week when the benchmark index declined, partly because additional shares were listed.
The next step, therefore, is turning a stronger capital market into more productive investment. President Bola Tinubu has also backed plans to reform and eventually list NNPC on the stock exchange. If executed properly, a major listing could deepen Nigeria’s capital market, attract domestic and international investment and give Nigerians greater access to ownership of a major national company.
That becomes even more significant with the planned Dangote Refinery IPO, which Reuters reports could raise about $5 billion and become Africa’s largest-ever market listing.
Nigeria could therefore be entering an important period for its capital markets. But there is a warning: a booming stock market does not automatically mean ordinary businesses and households are booming.
The real measure of success will be whether improved confidence translates into cheaper financing, more business expansion, stronger employment and greater production.
Nigeria’s private sector may finally be showing signs of life. The challenge now is making sure the recovery is broad enough for more Nigerians to actually feel it.
