Osun State goes to the polls on Saturday, August 15, for a governorship election that has become increasingly defined by security concerns. The killing of Dele Ayegbo, nephew of APC campaign Director-General Wole Oke, in Esa-Oke has intensified fears just days before voting, with the APC alleging political involvement in the attack. Those allegations have not been independently established, and the circumstances remain subject to investigation.
The worrying part is that this incident did not happen in isolation. A pre-election security assessment by the Kimpact Development Initiative recorded 73 election-related violent incidents and 29 deaths across Osun ahead of the poll. Osogbo was identified as the worst-affected area.
That changes the question voters should be asking. It is no longer simply “Who will win Osun?” It is “Will voters feel safe enough to participate?” The answer could have a major impact on turnout.
Osun already has a significant participation challenge, with more than 430,000 collected PVCs reportedly still unclaimed. That means a large number of registered voters are already outside the electoral process before a single ballot is cast. Add fear, political intimidation and uncertainty around movement on election day, and the number of people who actually turn up could fall even further.
That creates an uncomfortable situation. An election can be technically successful, polling units open, BVAS works, votes are counted, while still failing to reflect the full will of the electorate if people stay home because they are afraid.
And Osun is not a state where the stakes are insignificant. The 2022 governorship election was fiercely contested, with vote-buying and security concerns already featuring heavily in discussions around the poll.
This time, the security response is expected to be much heavier. That may reassure voters, but it also presents another challenge: security personnel must protect the election without becoming part of the political contest.
With accusations already flying between the major camps, every arrest, restriction, confrontation or security incident could quickly become politically charged. So Saturday’s real test will go beyond counting votes.
INEC has to deliver a credible process. Security agencies have to keep voters safe without intimidation. Political parties have to control their supporters. And voters have to believe that casting a ballot is worth the risk.
Because if fear keeps people away from the polling units, the winner may be clear — but the legitimacy of the victory could become the next battle.
